Iowa +3.5

Honestly, I don’t know if this bet will seem entirely logical this week. The Fighting Illini rank inside the top five nationally in three major defensive categories. Illinois is third in total and run defense. The Illini are first in the country in scoring defense.

The Hawkeyes, on the other hand, rank 130th nationally in total offense. Betting on Iowa’s terrible offense against Illinois’ stellar defense, doesn’t seem like a recipe for success.

That said, this is the kind of game Illinois always finds creative ways to lose or get blown out in. The Illini are betting favorites, and national media analysts seem to be high on them. If past evidence is any indicator, the Illini will lose this game in embarrassing fashion. Illinois will either be blown or throw a heartbreaking interception on their last drive to lose.

At the very least, I like the Hawkeyes to cover in this game. I don’t see Illinois winning by more than a field goal.

Under 35.5

I was foolish enough to pick the Iowa over last week. I’m not going to make that mistake again. Statistically speaking, Michigan’s defense is worse than Illinois. The Wolverines’ rank seventh and 14th in the country in total and run defense, respectively.

The Illini’s No. 1 ranking in scoring defense should also give over bettors some reason to pause. Illinois is letting up around nine points per game to offenses that are better than Iowa’s. Imagine what the Illini’s defense is going to do to the Hawkeyes’ offense.

Bettors also shouldn’t lose track of Iowa’s defensive ratings. The Hawkeyes rank third and eighth in scoring and total defense, respectively.

I suspect this game could end, 10-7. Believe me, if these teams could tie, they would. Hammer this under and all the Iowa unders this year, no matter what.

Lock of the Week: Missouri +11 vs. Florida

This line doesn’t make sense to me. The Tigers almost beat the second-ranked, reigning national champion Georgia Bulldogs last week.

Why is Missouri the underdog in this game? Florida doesn’t have anything on its resume that is even close to as impressive as Missouri’s near-upset.

Perhaps I’m riding too high on the Tigers. I’ve been known to read too much into one game. Especially this season. I’m 12-13 in The Daily Iowan’s weekly “On the Line” picks, and if I pick another bad “Weekly Wager” slate, I might be in hypothetical debt. Good thing I’m not actually placing these bets.