With just over a month until the general election, Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign faces a fracture within the Democratic Party, threatening her bid for the White House.

Iowa Democrats and Democrats nationally are divided over President Joe Biden’s response to the Israel-Hamas war, with progressives advocating for Biden to cut aid to Israel, leaving some pro-Palestinian progressives questioning how they will vote in November.

While the issue has not manifested as deeply for Iowa Democrats as it has nationally, Democrats across the state are unhappy with Biden’s handling of the issue.

The divide has plagued the Democratic Party since Hamas militants killed almost 1,200 people in an attack on Israeli towns bordering the Gaza Strip on Oct. 7, 2023. The ensuing invasion of the Gaza Strip by the Israeli Defense Force has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians and leveled swaths of the densely populated enclave.

Pro-Palestinian activists have criticized Biden for his handling of the war with 61 percent of Democrats approving of his administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, according to a September George Washington University/HarrisX poll.

Iowa Democrats have not felt this division as deeply as Democrats have nationally, with only 38 percent saying they disapprove of Biden’s handling of the war, according to a June Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll. However, 65 percent of Democrats say that Israel’s actions are unacceptable.

Harris inherited Biden’s political liability on the issue, with protesters and activists calling for her to sign an arms embargo and end military aid to Israel — much like they did with Biden before his exit from the race.

Harris has largely mimicked Biden’s policies but has been adamant about her calls for a ceasefire in the conflict and stressed the importance of a two-state solution. A two-state solution is one in which both Israelis and Palestinians can self-govern and peacefully reside within mutually agreed upon and defined territories.

Harris has also said she would not support an arms embargo, or the cessation of arms sales to Israel, despite pro-Palestinian activists’ calls.

The party’s division could prove costly to Harris, with 17 percent of Democratic primary voters voting uncommitted in protest of Biden’s handling of the conflict. This is especially impactful in key swing states like Michigan, which boasts a large Arab American population — a key demographic for Democrats and among the most vocal in their support for Palestinians. A May ABC News/Ipsos poll found nearly half of those polled said the war is important in determining their candidate in 2024.

Democratic dissatisfaction with U.S. involvement in the war was further displayed at the Democratic National Convention in August, where more than 1,000 pro-Palestinian protesters called for a ceasefire in Gaza and for Harris to withdraw her support for Israel. These protests revealed a division among Democratic voters and a clear vulnerability in Harris’s campaign.

Generational divide

Polling shows that both young and old Americans disapprove of Biden’s handling of the war. However, they remain divided on who they support in the conflict. A July  The Economist/YouGov poll found 58 percent of voters under 29 disapproved of Biden’s handling of the war and 56 percent of adults over 65 also disapproved.

Younger and older voters remain divided on who they support in the war, with 37 percent of voters under 29 saying their sympathies lie with Palestinians, while only 10 percent of voters over 65 say the same. Instead, 50 percent of voters over 65 sympathized with the Israelis.

Young Iowans share this disapproval of Biden’s handling of the war, with 78 percent of respondents under 35 saying they disapprove of Biden’s handling of the war in a June Iowa poll.

Delaney Waterman, a fourth-year University of Iowa student, said she has apprehensions about Biden’s handling of the war and wants Harris to speak more on the conflict to reassure young voters who care deeply about the issue.

“[Biden has] not done a very good job with it,” Waterman said. “There’s obviously been protests and uprisings in a lot of different states and different communities — and for good reasons — because innocent people are dying over there, and I think that his kind of ignoring the subject and not speaking on it has really hurt his campaign a lot.”

While Harris has sought to define her stance on the issue, she has called for a ceasefire in the conflict and has said that a two-state solution is necessary to resolve the conflict, a stance that mirrors the Biden administration’s stance on the issue. She has said she does not support an arms embargo on Israel, a move that pro-Palestinian activists have been calling for.

Iowa State University Political Science Professor Mack Shelley said the divide among Democrats on the war is largely generational, with younger voters more likely to support Palestinians. Shelley said the generational divide over the Israel-Hamas war is similar to the split that formed over the Vietnam War in the 1960s.

The experiences of younger voters who feel their voices are not being heard on this issue echo the experiences of younger voters during the Vietnam years, he said. While reaching these voters is important to Harris — and this is evident from the Democratic National Convention’s attempt to appeal to the younger generation — Shelley said the younger voting block is complicated.

Shelley said younger voters are less likely to vote as a block and have been historically inconsistent.

The most consistent voting block are those between their mid-60s and early 80s, a block that would not respond well to criticism of Israel.

“One of the dilemmas that Harris personally faces, and the Democrats face, is that if they do want to attract younger generational support, it’s going to be at the expense of probably losing even more votes than they would gain from the younger folks,” Shelley said.

The war has gotten worse in the past few months, he said, but it would be almost impossible for Democratic Party leaders to come out against Israel. Shelley noted the importance of Israel as an ally, particularly given its geographic significance as a U.S. ally in the Middle East.

Israeli interests are also critical to winning elections, Shelley said, with much of the Democratic Party establishment relying on support from donors or campaign workers with Israeli interests. Condemning Israel, and losing the support of this important donor bank, could have catastrophic implications for the Democrats.

Shelley said Harris’ major talking points of her campaign realistically cannot say that she is pro-Palestinian, but at the grassroots level, there can be party activists who can reach out to the pro-Palestinian voter base.

Majority of Democrats support Biden’s handling of the conflict

While many Democrats show concern for Biden’s handling of the conflict, others within the party support his efforts.

A September George Washington University/HarrisX poll found that 61 percent of Democrats polled support Biden’s handling of the conflict.

A majority of Iowa Democrats feel the same, with a July 2024 Iowa poll finding that 51 percent of Iowans approve of Biden’s actions.

Tom Henderson, a co-chair of Iowans Supporting Israel and former Polk County Democrats chair, said he appreciates Biden’s decisiveness in handling the war.

Henderson appreciates Biden’s support for Israel, including military aid, but also supported Biden for the pressure he is placing on Israel to negotiate a ceasefire. Henderson sees the conflict as a human problem and voices concerns for the civilians of both Israel and Palestine.

“I think we all are very sad whenever we see anybody who is dying over there,” Henderson said. “Could be Palestinian, could be Israeli — nobody wants this death to continue.”

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Henderson is not concerned with Harris’ handling of the conflict thus far, as he sees Harris as consistent with Biden and appreciates that she is working toward a ceasefire. A ceasefire, Henderson said, is the ultimate goal.

Henderson said any divisions within the Democratic Party surrounding this topic stem from disagreements about the end of the conflict.

In terms of resolution, Henderson sees the conflict as needing consensus within the government.

“I would like the government to continue to encourage the two-state solution, to hopefully get both parties to agree upon areas where they can set up nation-states and coexist together without this armed conflict going on forever,” Henderson said, emphasizing that both the Jewish people of Israel and the people of Palestine deserve places to live and their own governments.

Going into the election, Henderson said voters are concerned that the current U.S. government is not doing enough to bring peace, but those voters do not have a place in the Republican party.

He said the threat this conflict poses to Harris is no-show voters, not voters who will cross party lines.

These no-show voters would have their largest impact in swing states, he said.

“You have to look at the swing states and then find out if there are significant groups of individuals that might be of Palestinian origin and might be concerned that the Democratic Party isn’t really their friend,” Henderson said. “That’s where it would have an impact on the election.”

Activists not convinced by Harris’ calls for ceasefire

Pro-Palestinian activists still aren’t convinced that Harris would make a meaningful difference on the issue compared to Biden.

The leaders of the Uncommitted National Movement, formed to pressure Biden to shift his policy on the Israel-Hamas war during his reelection campaign by withholding their endorsement for his candidacy, recently refused to endorse Harris. They said she has not given the group indications of support for an arms embargo on Israel, a move which would ban the sale of weapons to Israel. The group did not encourage a third-party vote, however.

Yahir Jimenez, a first-year UI student and the co-founder of Iowa Students for Justice in Palestine, a national Palestinian solidarity organization, said the group felt nothing had fundamentally changed for their cause when Biden exited the race in late July.

Jimenez said the student group expects, given Kamala Harris’ ties to President Biden, that her foreign policies will not differ too greatly from his. He described Harris as the successor of the Biden administration and expects her to continue Biden’s policies.

The group will not be bought easily, he said.

To win the activist group over, Harris would need to enact an arms embargo and halt all military aid to Israel, solidify a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, and acknowledge the violations of international law by Israel, Jimenez said.

Until then, Jimenez and other activists will continue to call for change.

Newman Abuissa, the chair of the Arab American Caucus of the Iowa Democratic Party and an uncommitted delegate to the Democratic National Convention in August, said he cast an uncommitted vote at the convention to serve as a voice for those frustrated with the Biden administration’s handling of the conflict.

Abuissa expressed frustration with what he considered hypocrisy from the Biden administration, as he criticized the administration’s calls for a ceasefire while also funding Israeli weapons.

He said when Biden was the Democratic nominee, he felt the chances of a Democratic win in the general election were slim.

Abuissa said with his foreign policy failures, Biden was losing traction with voters and Democratic enthusiasm was waning. So, when Harris replaced Biden as the nominee, he said he felt a sense of hope.

“Kamala Harris, impressively, was able to generate support and unify most of the party,” Abuissa said.

Now, Abuissa said Harris is walking a fine line as she tries to appease both sides of this Democratic divide.

He also said that while he recognizes the nuances of walking this line, Abuissa said he ultimately thinks that Democratic support for Israel in this conflict is harming Democratic values, such as defending human rights.

He said Harris needs to provide more clarity with her voters on what she intends to do to resolve this conflict.

“I would like the vice president to state specifically that she will take concrete steps to reach that ceasefire in the first week or two of her administration,” Abuissa said.

While he was an uncommitted voter at the convention, Abuissa said he still believes in the necessity of a Democratic win during the upcoming election, describing the alternative as “unthinkable.”

Abuissa said uncommitted voters, like himself, likely won’t be voting Republican but still need the Democratic Party to prove to them that they care about the end of this conflict.

“If our Democratic Party wants the progressive swing to vote in numbers and be mobilized and energized to vote, we need a solid plan to end the genocide,” Abuissa said.

Abuissa said attempts to marginalize the Palestinian voters will impact the Democrat’s ability to mobilize their voter base. He said that this conflict is the “elephant in the room” for Democratic voters going into this election.

While Abuissa considers himself a single-issue voter, he still doesn’t plan to stay home on election day.

Up until the election, Abuissa will be advocating for Palestinian voices and implores other Democratic voters to contact their representatives and candidates in this election and demand a ceasefire.

And when Nov. 5 rolls around, Abuissa said he would be voting with his conscience.

“We need to let all candidates know, including the presidential candidates, that this is an issue we cannot ignore,” he said.