Before Sunday night’s disheartening loss at Northwestern, I would have argued that the Hawkeyes had a chance to claim a No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament if they win out to close the regular season and put together a solid Big Ten tournament run.

But, I don’t think that’s the case anymore. I believe Iowa will be a No. 7 seed in the NCAA tournament this postseason. The Hawkeyes are too unreliable and unproven to deserve a higher seed at this point in the season.

The Hawkeyes’ Dec. 21, 2022 loss to an atrocious Eastern Illinois squad at home is a prime example of what could keep this Iowa team from making major noise on Selection Sunday. Iowa shot 7-for-33 from behind the arc against the Panthers, and despite a 24-point, eight-rebound performance from big man Filip Rebraca, Eastern Illinois ran away with a 92-83 victory.

Iowa is unable to handle stretches of subpar shooting from distance, as evidenced by their struggles during Payton Sandfort’s cold streak early in the season. The Hawkeyes live and die by the three far too often — a trend that has given them fits in recent tournament games, especially against Oregon in 2021 and Richmond in 2022.

Iowa shot a combined 14-of-54 from three in those two upset losses, a statistic that might give the NCAA selection committee pause as they consider the Hawkeyes for a higher seed.

Adding to that issue is the Hawkeyes’ struggles in opposing arenas. Check their road record this season — they’re 3-6 outside of Carver, with losses to Penn State and Nebraska. I expect these factors to heavily influence the committee’s decision to award Iowa a No. 7 seed.

This opinion could change if the Hawkeyes manage to win out and make a splash in the Big Ten Tournament. However, there are not many signs that this is a possibility.

After watching the abomination that occurred in Evanston on Sunday evening, you might think I’m crazy for thinking that Iowa could earn a No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament. And I’ll concede; if Iowa continues to shoot the way it did three days ago in Welsh-Ryan Arena, the Hawkeyes may not even make the tournament at all.

But I feel confident saying that Iowa will not have a performance that bad for the rest of the season. I mean, Iowa shot the three at 35 percent — in the top half of the Big Ten — before Sunday’s disaster.

Grant’s point about Iowa living and dying by the three is a fair one, but when those threes fall, Iowa is hard to beat.

Granted, with Iowa’s current resume, I think Fran McCaffery’s team is worthy of a No. 7 or 8 seed, but the same could be said of last year’s team that earned a No. 5 seed after a Big Ten Tournament championship.

In 2021-22, the Hawkeyes finished the regular season 12-8 in the Big Ten and were the No. 5 seed in the conference tournament — a likely spot for them this season — and then ripped off four wins in four days against Northwestern, Rutgers, Indiana, and Purdue, respectively.

This season, the only Big Ten teams the Hawkeyes will not have a chance to beat in the regular season are Purdue and Penn State — as the Boilermakers and Nittany Lions each only showed up once on the Hawkeyes’ schedule and beat them.

Iowa lost to Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Michigan State earlier this season, but the Badgers, Huskers, and Spartans will each face Iowa once more this season.

Northwestern and Ohio State, Iowa’s other losses, have split the season series with Iowa.

Although Iowa’s chances at a No. 5 seed for the NCAA tournament took a hit on Sunday, a run to the conference tournament championship game and an undefeated remainder of the regular season gets them there. And if the Hawkeyes play as they’re capable of — and Purdue has an off night from three-point range — there’s nobody in the Big Ten Iowa can’t beat.