Purdue -4.5

This will be a strength-on-strength matchup when Purdue’s offense is on the field.

The Boilermakers put the ball in the air the eighth-most of all FBS teams, and they’re efficient when they do so. Purdue ranks 26th nationally in Passing Success Rate behind the arm of quarterback Aidan O’Connell. 

Although O’Connell has taken a step back from where he was last year, he has a bevy of weapons around him — most notably, Iowa transfer Charlie Jones, who ranks sixth nationally with 840 yards receiving and nine touchdowns.

Unlike Purdue teams of the past, the Boilermakers rank 24th in Rushing Success Rate this season, putting themselves in the top 30 in terms of both Rushing and Passing Success Rate.

But where the Boilers can gather a margin is on the defensive side of the ball. This isn’t like the Northwestern defense that ranked outside the top 80 in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and Defensive Passing Success Rate. 

In fact, Purdue sits 17th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate, and its defensive line will have no problem attacking an Iowa O-line that has struggled to get a push up front all season and ranks 125th in Offensive Line Yards.

Action Network’s Collin Wilson makes the Boilermakers a 6-point favorite, while BJ Cunningham has Purdue projected at -6.5. Add in the fact that Jeff Brohm’s team has always been a thorn in Iowa’s side, and I’d lay the points with the Boilers.

Over 42

Week 10 marks the first time this season that I haven’t taken the under in Iowa’s game.

Purdue is averaging 32.8 points per game this season, and every Boilermakers game this season has seen at least 54 points light up the scoreboard except for one — a 20-10 Purdue victory over Minnesota.

The difference between Minnesota and Iowa is that the Golden Gophers run the ball on 65.6% of plays, which is the eighth-highest rush rate in the country.

While a Kirk Ferentz-coached team will almost always want to establish the ground game, the Hawkeyes run the ball much less than Minnesota. The Hawkeyes turn to their ground attack on 54.5% of plays, which is barely in the top half of the country.

Iowa hasn’t faced a team that throws it nearly as often as Purdue. I expect the Boilermakers to put up some points in this one, which will force Iowa to throw the ball to keep up.

Lock of the week: New Mexico +17 vs. Utah State

This game might not be fun to watch, but this is too many points. 

Utah State has put up only 19.1 points per game this season, and the Aggies are still facing quarterback problems. 

Starter Logan Bonner suffered a season-ending injury at the end of September. That led to three quarterbacks seeing action against the Rams, and the group went a combined 14-of-30 for 138 yards. That adds up to a horrific 4.6 yards per attempt.

Freshman Bishop Davenport got the start in the next game against Wyoming and threw for only 104 yards and an interception on 17-of-26 passing.

If the Aggies can’t throw the ball against a New Mexico secondary that ranks 27th nationally in coverage grade, they’ll have to turn to the ground game. That would be fine if Utah State didn’t rank 97th in Rushing Success Rate.

The Lobos offense isn’t good, but their defense should find a way to keep a depleted Aggies offense in check. 

I snagged this at New Mexico +17 (-120) but would feel good playing it to +14.5.

Purdue -4.5

I did a lot of deliberating before I made this pick. But I guess that’s what the line is supposed to make you do — think twice.

Iowa picked up a big win against Northwestern last week. Obviously, beating a now-1-7 team isn’t a huge achievement. But for the Hawkeyes, that win wasn’t about proving they can beat the Wildcats. Rather, Iowa got a chance to show that its offense isn’t totally broken.

Had Iowa’s offense struggled against a Northwestern defense that now ranks 94th in the country, there would’ve been cause for major concern. But the Hawkeyes showed that they’re not entirely inept offensively, racking up 33 points and 398 total yards.

Quarterback Spencer Petras even connected on 21 of his 30 pass attempts for 220 yards and a touchdown.

Iowa put up its best offensive performance of the year by far against Northwestern. The game even helped the Hawkeyes creep out of last place in the country in total offense.

Iowa certainly gave its fans a much-needed dose of hope last week. But bettors shouldn’t be comforted by Iowa’s offense being ranked 129th in the nation instead of 131st.

Purdue’s defense is rated 43rd nationally. So, I expect the Hawkeyes’ offense to stall on Saturday. Offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz may have used up all his magic against Northwestern last week.

So, I like Purdue plus the points this week. When Iowa’s offense stalls, it won’t be able to keep up with Purdue’s explosive attack.

Over 42

I haven’t had much success picking Iowa totals over the last two weeks. I claimed the Hawkeyes’ last two unders were sure bets. Both of them didn’t hit.

So, this week, I’m changing my strategy. I’m not doing anything differently in a scientific or mathematical way. Rather, I’m choosing to believe in jinxes, hoaxes, and superstitions.

Purdue has hit six overs and two unders this season. Iowa unders are currently 5-3.

So, I’m going to take the Purdue over this week. I know the Iowa and Purdue overs are the same thing this week, but I’m putting it this way for superstition’s sake.

Iowa’s defense has been solid all season. It is rated fifth in the country, surrendering about 266 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game.

The Hawkeyes’ stout defense has been a thorn in over bettors’ sides all season — excluding the last two weeks. This weekend, I think Iowa over bettors will get what they want for the third week in a row.

Purdue’s offense and passing attack are ranked 32nd and 13th, respectively. The Boilermakers have averaged 309.8 passing and 402.4 total yards in their last five games with the Hawkeyes. During that stretch, Purdue has outscored Iowa 130-104.

Because Purdue’s offense has looked so dominant this season and has proven to be the Hawkeye defense’s kryptonite in the past, I like the over this week. The Boilermakers may put up 42 points on their own.

Lock of the week: Michigan State +17.5 vs. Illinois

I’ll probably receive a lot of hate for this pick, but a lock’s a lock. Illinois is the best team in the Big Ten West, and Michigan State might be the worst in the East.

But none of that means Illinois’ offense is high-powered enough to cover a 17.5-point spread. The Fighting Illini have outscored one of their Big Ten opponents by more than 18 points. Illinois beat Wisconsin, 34-10, on Oct. 1.

Michigan State beat Wisconsin, 34-28, on Oct. 15. So, I’m pretty confident the Spartans can cover this spread — even if they’ll be the away team at Memorial Stadium in Champaign this weekend.