Northwestern +11

I’m so happy to not be taking Iowa this week. This is simply too many points against a Hawkeye offense that has somehow gotten worse since its horrendous start.

It doesn’t matter if Spencer Petras or Alex Padilla takes the snaps on Saturday; Iowa’s offense won’t do enough to create a margin against a Northwestern team that nearly scored an upset over Maryland on the road last week.

The Hawkeyes rank in the bottom seven of nearly every meaningful advanced metric on the offensive side of the ball. Because these statistics are apparently good enough for Kirk and Brian Ferentz, we shouldn’t expect anything more from the offense than what we’ve seen to this point.

Plus, Northwestern is exactly average in Defensive Finishing Drives (66th), so I don’t trust Iowa to take advantage if it ever finds itself inside the Wildcats’ 40-yard line.

The defense will once again be the Hawkeyes’ main strength in this one. This unit shouldn’t have much of a problem keeping Northwestern under 20 points considering the Wildcats can’t run (92nd in Rushing Success Rate) or throw (78th in Passing Success Rate) all that well.

However, their one bright spot is a big one. Versatile running back Evan Hull leads Northwestern with 547 yards rushing and three touchdowns on the ground to go along with 436 yards receiving and two scores on 40 receptions through the air.

It doesn’t happen very often, but we’ve seen inferior offenses move the ball at times against Iowa’s defense. I’ll take the double-digit underdog in what should be a low-scoring Big Ten West showdown.

Under 37.5

This total opened at 31.5, which would have been the lowest non-service academy over/under since a 1995 matchup between Arizona and Oregon State. 

Action Network’s PRO tools have tracked seven sharp moves to the over, pushing this number to 37.5. I think that’s an appropriate number to buy back on the under.

As mentioned, Iowa’s offense ranks in the bottom seven of Passing Success Rate, Rushing Success Rate, Finishing Drives, Line Yards and Havoc Allowed. While Northwestern has posted poor numbers in Rushing Success Rate (92nd) and Passing Success Rate (78th), it also comes in at 112th in Finishing Drives.

Simply put, if either team somehow sustains a drive against the superior defense, there’s no guarantee they’ll put points on the board. And if they do, I’m betting it’ll be field goals over touchdowns.

The Hawkeyes and Wildcats are both “under” teams as well. According to Action Network’s Evan Abrams, Iowa has gone 24-15-2 (62%) to the under since 2019, while Northwestern owns a mark of 22-16 (58%).

Lock of the Week: Colorado State vs. Boise State Under 43

This game should probably be played on Thursday night with Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit on the call.

If there’s one offense in the country that’s worse than Iowa overall, it might be Colorado State. 

The Rams rank 128th or worse in Rushing Success Rate, Passing Success Rate, Havoc Allowed and Finishing Drives. Remember, there are only 131 teams at the FBS level.

Meanwhile, with the defensive-minded Andy Avalos at the helm for the Broncos, BSU ranks 18th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and third in Defensive Passing Success Rate.

On the other side, Boise State has been in a weird place on offense all season. The Broncos fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough after losing by 17 to UTEP as a 16.5-point favorite, which led starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier to enter the transfer portal.

BSU has found something of a rhythm on offense after turning to a dual-threat signal-caller in Taylen Green. The Broncos have run the ball at least 40 times in every game since Green took over, and I don’t expect them to stop now.

Boise State’s run-heavy approach combined with Colorado State’s inability to move the ball should lead to a low-scoring matchup in the Land of Potatoes.

Northwestern +11

When this spread opened at nine points. I was tempted to take Iowa to cover. Picking Iowa to cover the spread has been a dangerous proposition this year. The Hawkeyes are currently 3-4 against the spread.

I know the Northwestern team coming to Kinnick Stadium Saturday is bad. But Iowa might be too. As I think many anticipated, this will be a battle between two teams that aren’t playing for much. Both could still make bowl games, and Iowa is vastly more likely to do so, but usually games between two below average teams that probably aren’t going to be division-winners are competitive for some reason.

To pick one of these teams to win by double digits just doesn’t make sense to me. There is no guarantee either squad even scores 11 points. So, I’m certainly not going to pick one to win by that margin.

I realize betting on Northwestern to do anything is risky. The Wildcats are 3-4 against the spread this season too. But I’m so confident these teams will run, punt, and cut block each other to death that I’m confident picking Northwestern to cover. I just don’t see a scenario where either team scores enough points to win by double digits.

Under 37.5 

This pick goes hand-in-hand with betting Northwestern to cover. Like I said before, I’m not certain either of these teams can even score enough points to cover an 11-point spread. I can’t comfortably pick the over here knowing that both of these teams are liable to score fewer than 10 points.

I honestly thought this total would be lower. Iowa and Northwestern unders are 5-2 and 4-3 this year, respectively. The Hawkeyes rank last in the 131-team FBS in total offense. They put up 10 points and 158 yards last week in their 54-10 loss to the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes.

Combine Iowa’s atrocious offense with its sixth-ranked total defense, and you’ve got a recipe for an under to hit. That’s been the formula all year, and I don’t see it going bad this week.

Give Northwestern credit where it’s due. The Wildcats have been moving the ball this year. They rank 75th in the country in total offense with 389.1 yards per game. Their passing offense is 45th with 262.1 yards per game. I know these stats aren’t that great. I’m just numb to what good offense looks like at this point.

Northwestern’s bugaboo all season has been turnovers. The Wildcats rank 126th in the nation in turnover margin.

It’s also a little unclear who will start at quarterback for both teams on Saturday.

 Iowa will either trot out Alex Padilla or Spencer Petras — both of whom played last weekend. Northwestern’s starter could be Ryan Hilinski — a South Carolina transfer that suffered a concussion on during the Wildcats’ 42-7 loss to the Wisconsin Badgers on Oct. 8 — or Brendan Sullivan, who relieved Hilinski in Week 6 and started in place of him in Week 8. The Wildcats were on bye during Week 7.

Quarterback unknowns and two inept offenses make me confident in this under. Bettors of this under should be labeled as thieves because they’ll be stealing money from sportsbooks come Saturday.

Lock of the Week: Rutgers + 14 vs. Minnesota

I have an asinine way to justify the logic to place this bet. I’m going to lean heavily on the transitive property of college football, so bear with me.

Illinois beat Minnesota 26-14 on Oct. 15. A week earlier, the Fighting Illini beat the Hawkeyes, 9-6. If Iowa lost to Illinois by fewer points than Minnesota did, the Hawkeyes must be better than the Golden Gophers.The Hawkeyes beat the Scarlet Knights, 27-10, on Sept. 24 at SHI Stadium in Piscataway, New Jersey.

If Iowa is nine points better than Minnesota against a common opponent like Illinois, then I suspect the Golden Gophers will beat Rutgers by nine fewer points than Iowa did. If Minnesota beats Rutgers, 18-10, the Scarlet Knights would cover the spread. Maybe the Golden Gophers beat the Scarlet Knights by 12 fewer points than Iowa because they’re at home. Still, Rutgers would cover the spread if it lost, 21-10.

Obviously, this is a ridiculous hypothetical, but when you’re betting on Rutgers no logic is sound.