Point/Counterpoint | Will Iowa win out this week?
Will the Hawkeyes defeat two top-four opponents in one week? Two DI staffers open up the debate.
February 23, 2021
No — Iowa will not win out this week
Nothing like two top-five road matchups in a four-day span to test a winning streak.
The No. 9 Iowa men’s basketball team has won its last four games, a rare feat for the program in February. But matchups with No. 3 Michigan in Ann Arbor, followed by Sunday’s contest with No. 4 Ohio State in Columbus, will both be tricky.
So tricky, that I don’t see Iowa winning both games. And that’s no slight against Iowa — these two games back-to-back are about as tough as it gets in men’s college basketball.
Michigan is playing remarkably well despite going more than three weeks without playing a game because of a COVID-19-caused shutdown. The team stands at 16-1 overall after a road win over the Buckeyes over the weekend (one of the best games of the season so far). The Wolverines have the No. 7 most efficient offense and the No. 11 defense, per the KenPom rankings system.
That’s a tough matchup. And defeating the Buckeyes won’t be much easier.
Iowa led Ohio State by 11 points in the second half of the Feb. 4 matchup between the teams at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, but lost by four. The Hawkeyes went through a scoreless stretch and didn’t convert late, so they couldn’t hold on to the win. I feel more comfortable predicting an Iowa win over Ohio State than I do over Michigan.
The Hawkeyes are undoubtedly capable of winning both of these games. But what these two games will show is if Iowa is capable of playing against elite-level competition consistently.
This stretch is the opportunity for Iowa to prove it can beat the best teams in the Big Ten because it is also on the top tier of the conference. Will it? I feel safer predicting a split.
Yes – Iowa will win out this week
Is there ever really a great time to be playing the nation’s third and fourth-best teams back-to-back? No, probably not.
Regardless, that’s the challenge No. 9 Iowa will face this week as it takes on No. 3 Michigan Thursday and No. 4 Ohio State Sunday.
Fortunately for the Hawkeyes, now is as good a time as any to be playing two top-four teams.
Iowa is currently riding a four-game win streak thanks, in part, to the return of C.J. Fredrick.
Since the sophomore guard came back from a lower leg injury Feb. 2, the Hawkeyes have gone 5-2. In games Fredrick has missed part or all of this season, Iowa has gone 1-4.
So, with Fredrick on the floor, Iowa is a better team — head coach Fran McCaffery even admitted that in his most recent postgame presser last Sunday.
Specifically, the Hawkeyes have made major strides on the defensive end of the floor. During its four-game win streak, Iowa has held its opponents to roughly 63 points per game.
Prior to their 79-66 win over Rutgers on Feb. 10, the Hawkeyes had only barred a conference opponent from scoring 70 points on one other occasion.
Fredrick also gives Iowa another weapon to utilize on the offensive end of the floor. The Hawkeyes have lost their most recent matchups to top five teams like Illinois and Ohio State by five points or less.
On the season, Fredrick has averaged 8.5 points per game. Add the Cincinnati, Ohio, native’s average eight points per game to Iowa’s total score at the end of the Ohio State and Illinois games, and the Hawkeyes outscore both those teams by the time the final buzzer sounds.
So, Iowa will score plenty of points and get enough stops on defense to overpower both of its highly rated opponents this week.