Men’s basketball in the Big Ten Conference is often unpredictable, especially this year. Ranked teams have already been defeated by unranked teams, and that will likely continue for the entirety of the 2020-21 season.

Not excused from the fierce competition is Iowa men’s basketball. The Hawkeyes have already fallen to both No. 21 Minnesota and Indiana in upset fashion, and more losses certainly lie ahead for the nation’s No. 7 team.

Currently, seven Big Ten teams are ranked inside the AP Top 25 Poll: Iowa, Minnesota, No. 19 Illinois, No. 14 Wisconsin, No. 13 Ohio State, and No. 4 Michigan.

According to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, as many as ten Big Ten teams might make the 2021 NCAA Tournament.

Before the end of the regular season, the Hawkeyes are scheduled to play nine games against teams Lunardi projects to make the NCAA Tournament.

Even teams Lunardi projects to be lower seeds in the NCAA Tournament could sneak up and deal the Hawkeyes a few losses before the end of the year, as unranked, 10-7 Indiana proved in its 12-point victory over Iowa at Carver-Hawkeye Arena Jan. 21.

With nine tough games remaining on its regular season schedule and Big Ten Tournament play beginning in March, Iowa may suffer three or four more losses before the NCAA Tournament field is announced on March 14.

If Iowa loses four more games before Selection Sunday, it would finish the season with seven total losses. Since 2015, teams with seven losses are typically given two seeds for the NCAA Tournament. However, three seven-loss teams have earned one seeds since 2015.

The teams that have lost seven games and been given one seeds in the past played full schedules of 30 games or more. This season, Iowa is only scheduled to play 27 games because of COVID-19. That number could shrink if games are postponed or canceled entirely.

With a tough remaining schedule, it will also be difficult for Iowa to surpass teams that currently sit ahead of it in the AP Poll and earn a one seed. No. 1 Gonzaga and No. 2 Baylor are both undefeated in 2020-21, and No. 3 Villanova and No. 4 Michigan both boast just one loss on their résumés.

The Hawkeyes have also already lost a head-to-head matchup with Gonzaga, 88-99, at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, on Dec. 19. Iowa does still have a head-to-head matchup with Michigan slated for March 4.

Given the dossiers of the teams ranked ahead of the Hawkeyes and the number of losses they may incur before Selection Sunday, I anticipate they will be given a two seed for this year’s NCAA Tournament.

Iowa’s Jan. 21 showing against Indiana was far from a No. 1 seed performance, but there are reasons to believe the Hawkeyes will be one of the four best teams in the nation come Selection Sunday.

Through Sunday, KenPom had Iowa as the No. 4 team in the nation based on its +27.12 adjusted efficiency margin rating. The team right behind Iowa, Villanova, had a +26.28 rating, which gives Iowa a small, but noticeable, edge against Villanova.

Iowa’s biggest strength is undoubtably its offense, which is averaging 90.67 points per game. KenPom recognizes the Hawkeyes’ offense as the best in the nation with their adjusted offensive efficiency of 124.6, which is just ahead of Gonzaga’s 124.4, but way in front Baylor’s third-best 120.7 offensive rating.

Iowa’s offensive ratings even account for an 11-minute scoring drought that led to an upset loss to Indiana at Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

Iowa has won every game it’s played following a loss this season, meaning it should earn a quality win at Illinois on Friday and an improvement in its adjusted offensive efficiency.

What Iowa must also do to keep its hopes for a No. 1 seed alive is play better defense. Though Iowa is averaging almost 17 more points per game than its opponents, it did give up 99 points to No. 1 Gonzaga on Dec. 19.

KenPom hasn’t been friendly to the Hawkeyes’ defense, ranking them 98th in adjusted defensive efficiency. But the Hawkeyes know they have to work on their defense every day, as they have expressed disappointment in their defensive performance throughout the season.

The Hawkeyes have proven they can win the majority of their games as long as they continue to play great on the offensive end of the floor. Should Iowa also manage to improve its defense, it may land a one seed on Selection Sunday.