Pete Ruden’s (13-0-1, $1,300) Picks: 

Iowa -3.5

I was surprised to see this line at 3.5. While I would love to get a -3 in the market, I still think Iowa can win by some margin here.

Wisconsin’s offense hasn’t been great by any stretch this season, ranking outside the top 50 in Success Rate, Finishing Drives, explosiveness and Havoc allowed.

To make matters worse for the Badgers, starting quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. may remain out with an injury. That would thrust Hunter Simmons into the starting role, but he threw for only 177 yards and an interception in his lone start against Michigan last week. 

Wisconsin won’t find a way to move the ball against Iowa’s secondary despite the struggles that unit has had at times throughout the season.

The Badgers also rank 86th in Rushing Success Rate, so moving the ball will be very difficult for them.

On the other side, Mark Gronowski was listed on the depth chart for this week after leaving Iowa’s game against Indiana with an injury. 

Even if the Hawkeyes have to play a vanilla game and rely on the ground game, Wisconsin sits outside the top 75 in Rushing Success Rate allowed.

Iowa should win this game without a problem.

Over 35.5

This total is eerily reminiscent of the Brian Ferentz days, but this is not the same Iowa offense.

Believe it or not, Iowa ranks top-50 in Success Rate and top-25 in Finishing Drives, meaning it should be able to stay on schedule and punctuate drives with touchdowns instead of field goals. That becomes even more likely considering Wisconsin sits 78th in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 52nd in Passing Success Rate allowed.

If Gronowski is fully healthy, I expect him to make some plays in his legs, especially in the red zone, where Wisconsin leads the nation in Finishing Drives allowed.

The Badgers have given up at least 24 points in all four of their games against Power Four competition, while the Hawkeyes have gone over this number themselves in three games.

This isn’t the same elite Wisconsin defense or terrible Iowa offense. I’d like to get over 35 or better, but I believe the over is the right side.

Lock of the Week: USC ML -130 vs Michigan 

Michigan might come into this game ranked 15th nationally with a 4-1 record, but let’s take a look at who they’ve beaten. 

• New Mexico, which just lost to San Jose State
• Central Michigan, which just lost to lowly Akron
• Nebraska by three in a game where the Wolverines threw for 105 yards
• Wisconsin with a backup quarterback

Not exactly a bunch of national title contenders.

Meanwhile, USC might have the best offense in the nation. Lincoln Riley’s offense leads the nation in Success Rate and Finishing Drives while ranking second in total offense (565 YPG) and third in scoring offense (48.4 PPG).

That’s a tall task for a Michigan defense that sits outside the top 90 in both Success Rate allowed and Finishing Drives allowed. 

Things don’t get much better on offense. The Wolverines come in outside the top 110 in Rushing Success Rate allowed and Passing Success Rate as well. 

USC’s defense can be had against the run, but I don’t think Michigan can win with a one-dimensional offense against a competent conference opponent. 

Give me the Trojans, who should find their way into the Top-25 with this win 

Brad Schultz’s (11-3-1, $1,200) Picks: 

Iowa – 3.5 

Though this is one of the worst Wisconsin teams it has faced in years, Iowa will certainly have its hands full on Saturday. Both teams have questions at the quarterback position, and the Hawkeyes’ recent struggles in raucous Camp Randall Stadium could make the task even more challenging. 

Notice how I said could? 

This will not be a run away game for Iowa, but I think it has more than enough firepower to out-physical this Badger team. I immediately look back on the 2024 meeting. The Hawkeyes didn’t have a great passing attack, but the running game just wore down Wisconsin and carried Iowa to a 42-10 victory at Kinnick Stadium. 

Kaleb Johnson isn’t playing in this game, but Kamari Moulton and the offensive line should be fully rested healthy coming out of a bye week, so there’s plenty of opportunity for some big runs. The Badgers’ anemic passing game will also help the Hawkeyes and could likely lead to some crucial takeaways and short fields for their offense. 

It’s not going to be pretty, but Iowa wins this game by a touchdown to cover the spread. 

Under 35.5 

Remember the Hawkeyes’ ugly 15-6 win at Camp Randall in 2023? I had the misfortune of witnessing that game, but Saturday could feature another defensive slugfest in Madison. 

Quarterback Mark Gronowski may play in this game, but Iowa will likely try to keep the pressure off him as much as possible and run the football, which could lead to a grind it out, low scoring affair. 

Lock of the Week: Illinois + 14.5 

I really want to pick Illinois to win this game outright in front of a sold-out crowd at Memorial Stadium, but Ohio State just looks too strong right now, especially on defense. Former New England Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is doing wonders in Columbus, and his unit has allowed just 25 points through five games. 

Predicting the Fighting Illini to cover a 14.5-point spread is bold considering the beatdown they received in Bloomington, but home field advantage will be enough for them to keep the game close. Ohio State wins by 10.