Pete Ruden’s Picks (5-0-1, $500)
Iowa -35
UMass is bad.
The Minutemen enter this game 0-2 on the season with a 42-10 loss to a Temple team that won three games last season and a 27-26 loss to Bryant for the Bulldogs’ first-ever win over an FBS team.
Iowa’s offense also isn’t as bad as the stats say.
The Hawkeyes put together two 16-play scoring drives against Iowa State in which they moved the ball quite well.
If there weren’t an absurd number of drops from the receiving corps, quarterback Mark Gronowski’s numbers would look a lot better than the 83 passing yards he put up.
Running back Jaziun Patterson also gave the offense a legitimate spark, which is something it can build on, considering that the Hawkeyes rank 17th nationally in Rushing Success Rate compared to the Minutemen’s ranking of 67th in Success Rate allowed.
UMass also struggles to keep teams from scoring when they get into position, ranking 123rd in Finishing Drives allowed.
It’s also worth noting that UMass will likely be without starting quarterback Brandon Rose, who got hurt against Bryant and was seen in a sling on the sideline.
Neither Rose nor backup Grant Jordan has looked great. In fact, both have yet to throw a touchdown while tossing a pick apiece.
This is exactly what Iowa needs after a heartbreaking loss. Give me the Hawkeyes to run it up here.
Over 42.5
Fair or not, this total is being priced based on Iowa’s offensive numbers. They aren’t pretty. But UMass isn’t going to find a way to stop Tim Lester’s offense.
In fact, the Minutemen come in at No. 135 out of 136 FBS teams in Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s betting power ratings. That’s right — they’d be projected as a one-point underdog to Akron on a neutral field.
They rank outside the top 100 in Standard Downs Success Rate and Standard Downs PPA. That means Iowa should be able to stay on schedule, which proved to be massive against Iowa State.
I don’t expect much from the UMass offense — especially with a backup quarterback likely to start — but anything the Minutemen add to the scoreboard would just be a bonus.
Add in the fact that Iowa could be set up with some short fields, and I’ll take the over on this low total.
Lock of the Week: Miami -17 vs South Florida
I love USF head coach Alex Golesh and the Bulls. I’m a big fan of their veer-and-shoot offense that spreads receivers out to the sidelines and operates at a lightning-fast pace.
But this is a terrible spot.
USF has climbed into the AP Top 25 thanks to wins over then-No. 25 Boise State and then-No. 13 Florida. Now, it has another top-25 matchup with No. 5 Miami in Coral Gables.
On the other side, Miami has looked great. The Hurricanes picked up a huge win over then-No. 6 Notre Dame in Week 1 and essentially had a bye week last week when Bethune-Cookman came to town.
How much does USF have in the tank after emptying it against Boise State and Florida? The Bulls have to be gassed right now, especially considering how fast they play.
Even though they have Florida on the docket next week, the Canes won’t take the Bulls lightly after they scored two ranked upsets in the first two weeks of the season.
I really like this USF team, but I’ll take Miami to put an end to this dream start for the Bulls.
Brad Schultz’s Picks (5-0-1, $500)
Iowa -35
This is a massive spread for the Hawkeyes, but the combination of losing a tough rivalry game and the drive for improvement will be more than enough to push Iowa over the edge. While most of the discussion after the Iowa State loss was around Mark Gronowski’s quote-on-quote poor performance, I thought he played pretty well considering that he was handcuffed by conservative play calling throughout the game.
This is the game where the Hawkeyes finally show signs of a 21st century passing game and give their starving fans some optimism before Big Ten play begins.
Over 42.5
I’ve got Iowa winning this game by at least 45 points, allowing the over to hit. The Hawkeyes will be able to run all over a putrid UMass defense.
Lock of the Week: Georgia Tech +4.5 over Clemson
The Georgia Tech disrespect is real here. Though Clemson’s loss came to a top-10 LSU team, the Tigers responded with a shaky performance the following week against Troy. Not only was Clemson bad in that game, the Trojans even managed to jump out to a 16-0 lead early in the second quarter before the Tigers rallied with the contest’s final 26 points to win.
Cade Klubnik is a good quarterback, but let’s shine the light on Georgia Tech signal-caller Haynes King. King didn’t play in the Yellow Jackets’ lopsided win over Gardner-Webb last weekend due to a lower-body injury, but he did go through pregame warmups so I expect him to play in this one.
King is a solid passer, but he makes his money running the football. He was terrific in the season-opener at Colorado, rushing for 156 yards and three touchdowns on 19 carries. The senior is always willing to put his body on the line, which is why I think Georgia Tech will get a program-changing win here. Bobby Dodd Stadium will be rocking.