Pete Ruden’s (0-0) Picks: 

Albany +38

Iowa should win this game handily, but this is a lot of points. 

That’s especially true considering that the Hawkeyes have Iowa State on deck and likely won’t want to show a lot on film with new quarterback Mark Gronowski ready to step in. 

Plus, it’s not like Iowa wasn’t an infallible team season. The defense had a down year by Phil Parker’s standards, ranking 73rd in Success Rate allowed.

Will that matter against a losing FCS team? Probably not. 

But it’s worth noting that Albany was a 38.5-point underdog in its lone FBS game against West Virginia last season, and the Great Danes covered that number with a 49-14 loss. That seems very much in the realm of possibility this time around.

Ultimately, I’m banking on Iowa playing it as vanilla as possible offensively as it prepares for a road rivalry game that could go a long way in determining how the season goes.

Under 50.5

I’m going with the same reasoning when it comes to the total. 

I simply don’t think Iowa will show a lot offensively in this game, and that’s going to hamper the final score when it comes to the over/under. 

The Hawkeyes also ran the ball on 64% of plays in 2024, good for the fifth-highest rush rate in the country. Running the ball a lot here will allow the clock to tick early and often. 

Plus, it’s not like Kaleb Johnson is coming back to break off 80-yard touchdowns left and right.

While Iowa could cash this over by itself if it plays a bit more aggressively, I don’t see that happening. I think the under is the safer play in Week 1.

Pick of the Week: USF +7 vs. Boise State

I love Alex Golesh’s offense in Tampa, and the Bulls could have one of the best quarterbacks in the Group of Five if Byrum Brown stays healthy. 

Boise State ranked 128th in explosiveness allowed a season ago, and that’s exactly where USF can attack after it ranked 11th in creating big plays last season. 

It’s also worth noting that Boise State will be battling the Florida weather here. When the Broncos headed south to take on Georgia Southern last year, they won, but they gave up 45 points as the total points scored eclipsed 100.

That was against Georgia Southern — not a team that could find itself in the mix to win the American Conference when November rolls around.

Plus, Ashton Jeanty isn’t walking out of those doors again. While the coaching staff has been high on Sire Gaines, it could take him some time to get going, especially with the pressure of replacing a Heisman finalist.

I bet the Bulls at +8 earlier this summer, and I’d take them at a touchdown or higher.

Brad Schultz’s (0-0) Picks:

Albany +38

Iowa will likely win this game by over 30 points, but asking the Hawkeyes to cover a massive spread like this is just too much to wish for. I know Kirk Ferentz and his staff will want to provide as much playing time for the underclassmen as possible, which could give Albany additional points to cover the spread. 

Predicting the Great Danes to score any points at all is very risky, as they ranked near the bottom of their conference in total offense in 2024, but I think Albany does crack the scoreboard on Saturday. 

If you’re a betting man, don’t touch this line. 

Under 50.5 

This pick goes hand-in-hand with my spread pick, but it’s hard to see Albany scoring enough points to push this total over. I wouldn’t be opposed to Iowa laying a 50-burger, but Mark Gronowski and the offense would probably have to play nearly the entire game to make that happen. 

The Great Danes could score a few cosmetic touchdowns to give the over a shot, but I’m going to play it safe and stick with the under this week. 

Lock of the Week: Tulane -6.5 vs Northwestern 

I’m staying in the Big Ten for my first pick of the season, but there’s no way I’m backing Northwestern here. The Wildcats enter the season with too many questions that won’t even be close to being answered in the opening week. Playing in a hostile and muggy environment at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans won’t help their cause, either. 

While it’s fun to clown on Northwestern, I wouldn’t be writing this if I didn’t feel confident in Tulane. If you would have told someone 10 years ago that the Green Wave would be a Group of Five powerhouse, then you would have received plenty of eye rolls. 

But that statement has improbably turned into reality. Willie Fritz built the struggling program into an American Conference and Cotton Bowl champion in 2022, and second-year coach Jon Sumrall has the winning pedigree to continue Tulane’s ascend. The experience of BYU transfer quarterback Jake Retzlaff (albeit at the expense of Brendan Sullivan) will also be crucial in this matchup.