8-4

With the college football season officially over for the Iowa football program, it’s now time to do what most sane people do in the offseason — create a way-too-early prediction for the Hawkeyes’ upcoming year.

To perfectly analyze a prediction for next season, we must ask ourselves one question: Who are the key departures and returners on this Iowa roster?

First, let’s look at the offense. 

Highlighting the roster for 2025 is quarterback transfer Mark Gronowski from South Dakota State. The Jackrabbit play-caller led the program to its first two subdivision championships while accumulating 10,300 total yards and almost 100 all-purpose touchdowns. 

While no single player will be able to replace Kaleb Johnson anytime soon, the Hawkeyes are returning the running back duo of Kamari Moulton and Jaziun Patterson. Fans saw a sneak peek of these two sharing the load in Iowa’s contest against Missouri in the Music City Bowl. 

Iowa will be returning most of its receiving core from last season, with Jacob Gill and Reece Vander Zee highlighting the position group, too. As a result, offensive coordinator Tim Lester — one year at the program under his belt — has the experience and talent to finally get things right with an even better offense. There’s no excuse.

While Iowa is bringing back Xavier Nwankpa, Max Llewellyn, and Aaron Graves, the team will introduce new players to fill new roles on this side of the ball as it always does. I mean, this is Phil Parker we’re talking about. 

Even with the defense being somewhat of a question mark going into the new year, I believe this team is talented enough to earn eight wins. Offensively, I expect Lester and Gronowski to merge smoothly, continuing to develop on the offensive product built the season prior. 

There will be some concerns on the other side of the ball. But beyond Penn State and Oregon — both at home, mind you — this team isn’t facing anyone unbeatable. An 8-4 record is the floor.

6-6

The name of the game here is “realism” — never a term Hawkeye football fans want to embrace, but one every fan should.

I don’t trust Gronowski after what happened to Cade McNamara. Sure, he’s a champion at the FCS level, but put him against Big Ten defenses. He was 10-of-26 for 87 yards when the Jackrabbits played the Hawkeyes two years ago. A passing quarterback hasn’t worked for Kirk Ferentz in ages. And removing Johnson from the equation seriously kills this offense, too. 

Without leaders like Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson on the other side of the ball, Iowa football will no longer be the defensive threat it was once known to be. We already saw some shaky secondary play this season that stung badly. Now do it without the dominant linebacker corps.

So, let’s get realistic with the schedule, too.

Cake-walk Albany and UMass wins will be interrupted by a loss at Iowa State on a roll after an upbeat 2024 for a 2-1 start. Remember, that game is at Jack Trice Stadium.

Wins at Rutgers and versus Indiana are expected to move Iowa to 4-1 to start, but don’t be surprised by a rivalry upset loss to Minnesota or at Wisconsin. It happens every year: Michigan State in 2024 and Minnesota the year before. Call it 5-2.

Penn State and Oregon are both championship contenders again next season, so let’s not get cocky there — 5-4. The Hawkeyes wouldn’t have touched them no matter the location this season. Next year, I’d argue they’ll be even stronger. Hawkeye fans can only do so much. And if the trip to UCLA this past season was any indication, call it 5-5 with a loss at USC.

I’d hope the Hawkeyes beat Michigan State at home because that team is really going nowhere, but a trip to Nebraska to close out the season with Dylan Raiola burns the already massive holes in the Hawkeye secondary previously mentioned.

That’s 6-6. The personnel just isn’t there to make any noise next season. I hope I’m proven wrong.