It’s widely known that regular season dual meets mean virtually nothing in college wrestling anymore. Iowa grapplers have said from the beginning of the season that they’re preparing for what’s most important — the Big Ten and NCAA tournaments in March.

Well, it’s about that time, and Iowa has only put its highest-ranking starting lineup on the mat once this season in a 34-6 victory against No. 10 Nebraska on Jan. 20. Because of the lingering injuries and inconsistency throughout Iowa’s lineup this season, the Hawkeyes will not leave Tulsa, Oklahoma, on March 18 hoisting the first-place trophy.

Iowa 174-pounder Nelson Brands missed the first four dual meets due to collarbone surgery and has been in-and-out of the lineup since his return. Brands showed he can compete with the best, as he narrowly fell to Penn State’s top-ranked two-time NCAA champion Carter Starocci, 2-1, on Jan. 27.

Hawkeye Abe Assad hasn’t seen the mat since getting pinned by Wisconsin’s unranked Tyler Dow on Jan. 22. Despite the loss, Assad is Iowa’s best bet for a podium finish at 184 pounds.

Iowa’s 197-pounder Jacob Warner has had some tough losses lately, including a 2-0 loss to Penn State’s reigning national champion Max Dean and a buzzer-beating defeat to Minnesota’s unranked Michael Foy. Warner also missed two Big Ten dual meets.

Warner showed his potential with a runner-up finish at the NCAA’s last season, and he started this season more aggressive than I’ve ever seen him in a Hawkeye singlet. So if Warner regains his confidence, anything can happen.

But the absence of these three would be detrimental to Iowa’s title hopes. It’s also important to note that the replacements for Brands, Assad, and Warner have been true freshmen, which would be less than ideal in such a tough tournament setting.

Iowa’s 125-pounder Spencer Lee, who is on the hunt for his fourth individual NCAA title, is the only champion lock in the starting lineup, and it’s going to take a lot more than that for the Hawkeyes to bring home the title.

The Hawkeyes showed they could compete with the reigning national champion Nittany Lions when they won four bouts and came within two points or fewer in four of the matches they lost in their dual meet on Jan. 27. But Penn State is the obvious favorite going into March with four returning individual national champions.

Iowa’s margin for error en route to a 2023 NCAA title is incredibly small. Of course, it’s not impossible, but the Hawkeyes will need everyone to chip in bonus points and have several reach All-American status. It would also help if at least one other wrestler besides Lee found their way to the top of the podium.