Iowa will defeat Kentucky in the Music City Bowl on New Year’s Eve in Nashville, Tennessee.

In a game featuring possibly the lowest point spread in college football history, the Hawkeyes’ defense and special teams will dictate the tempo.

A season ago, the two programs faced off in the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida, on New Year’s Day. The then-No. 18 Wildcats took down the No. 23 Hawkeyes, 20-17, as wideout Wan’Dale Robinson earned MVP honors for Kentucky after he hauled in 10 catches for 170 yards. 

The Wildcats’ two top offensive threats this season, quarterback Will Levis and running back Chris Rodriguez, were important contributors in Kentucky’s victory. Levis completed 17 of 28 passes for 233 yards and a touchdown, while Rodriguez added 112 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

However, both programs look much different than they did in last year’s matchup. Robinson was drafted by the New York Giants in the offseason, and Levis and Rodriguez opted out of the Music City Bowl as they prepare to enter the 2023 NFL Draft.

Iowa starting quarterback Spencer Petras, who threw three picks against the Wildcats in the Citrus Bowl, is out for the contest after he underwent surgery for a shoulder injury sustained against Nebraska on Nov. 25.

With backup Alex Padilla also out of the program after he entered the transfer portal on Nov. 29, Kirk Ferentz said either third-stringer Joey Labas or true freshman Carson May will earn the start on New Year’s Eve.

As both teams will be starting reserves at the game’s most important position, Iowa’s stout defense should have the advantage. 

Expect this one to be a low-scoring affair and expect an (even more) simplified offensive attack as offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz tries to help his young starter gain some rhythm.