Opinion | What way will Iowa swing?

A forecast for the 2024 general elections.

Supporters+for+Sen.+Elizabeth+Warren%2C+D-Mass.%2C+participate+during+the+caucus+at+Des+Moines+Precinct+62+in+the+Knapp+Center+on+Monday%2C+February+3%2C+2020.+The+caucus+head+count+reached+849+people%2C+leaving+127+individuals+needed+for+the+candidate+to+be+declared+viable.+Sen.+Warren+received+212+in+the+1st+round+total.+

Katina Zentz

Supporters for Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., participate during the caucus at Des Moines Precinct 62 in the Knapp Center on Monday, February 3, 2020. The caucus head count reached 849 people, leaving 127 individuals needed for the candidate to be declared viable. Sen. Warren received 212 in the 1st round total.

Elise Cagnard, Opinions Columnist


Politics might have been a hot topic at your Thanksgiving dinner table. 

In culmination with the recent midterm election, politics might be the last thing you want to hear about. But as we approach post-midterm elections, there are new predictions and theories of what we are going to see in Iowa for the 2024 elections.

Here are my thoughts on the upcoming Iowa caucuses. 

Iowa Caucus status

Iowa is a hot spot for politicians because it is the first state to hold a caucus. Politicians want to make a good impression to the national electorate by proving success in Iowa.  

Iowa is in a precarious state caucus-wise. Many experts have been predicting for years that Iowa will be stripped of its role as leading the nation into election season.

There are many variables that tie into these projections. Most notably is doubt that Iowa can correctly reflect the racial diversity of the U.S. because Iowa has a large white population. In recent years, there is doubt that it is truly a swing state. All this calls into question if Iowa is a fair representation of the diversity of the U.S.

Additionally, complications of the 2020 Iowa caucus because of a variety of technical difficulties and mismanagement are still fresh on people’s minds. It took weeks for caucus results to be called, which puts into question the efficiency of the whole process. 

Moving away from the legitimacy of the Iowa caucus, what candidates can we expect to be supported in the 2024 Iowa caucus? 

Predictions

It is expected that current President Joe Biden will be the Democrat nominee in 2024. Biden has not officially announced his intentions to run and is expected to make a campaign announcement in coming weeks.

This time around, the caucus to watch will be the Republican caucus.

There are many names floating around the GOP on who is fit to represent them. The most notable standouts as of now are former President Donald Trump and current Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Trump officially announced his campaign for 2024 on Nov. 15. On the other hand, DeSantis has not officially stated that he will run, however many experts predict an announcement soon. 

While many in the GOP have lost faith in Trump as a leader, does this trend hold true in Iowa? 

In the 2020 elections, Trump won the popular vote in Iowa by a comfortable margin, pulling ahead of Biden by over eight points. Additionally, if we are looking into the results of this past midterm election, all but one of Trump’s endorsed candidates won their respective elections.  

Both phenomena could reflect a strong Trump base in Iowa that would support him over another candidate, notably DeSantis. 

A recent poll conducted in Iowa indicated that 57 percent of Iowans surveyed hoped that Trump would run again in the 2024 election. 

This, coupled with all the other facts, is a strong indicator that Iowa Republicans are likely to endorse Trump in the upcoming election.


Columns reflect the opinions of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Editorial Board, The Daily Iowan, or other organizations in which the author may be involved.


 

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