Take a numbers-heavy look at No. 10 Iowa’s matchup with Maryland.
By Danny Payne
[email protected]
Coming into this game, No. 10 Iowa is expected to pummel lowly Maryland. Some stats tell that story, and some don’t; read on to see a numbers-based look at Iowa’s matchup with the Terps on Saturday.
Iowa rushing yards per game — 214.4, Maryland rushing defense — 175.5
Tuesday, a reporter asked Iowa’s now-No. 1 running back, Akrum Wadley, what he saw from the Maryland defense on film. Wadley was blunt with his answer, saying, “It could be a good day.”
He’s not joking.
Maryland has been one of the worst teams against the run in the Big Ten this season and also hasn’t been good on the national scale, ranking No. 84 overall. Iowa’s success on the ground against Illinois and Northwestern, in particular, should leave no doubt in the minds of Hawkeye fans.
Even though the Hawkeyes are without Jordan Canzeri for at least this week, Wadley’s and Derrick Mitchell’s production against Northwestern should be enough to gash a bad Terrapin defense.
Maryland sacks per game — 3.4, Iowa sacks allowed per game — 1.71
If there is one thing Maryland defensive coordinator Keith Dudzinski can do lean on to get a good night’s sleep this week, it’s that Iowa can be susceptible to the sack. While it has performed well in the Hawks’ last two games, Iowa’s young offensive line is still an area opposing defenses wouldn’t mind attacking.
Maryland blitzes on a frequent basis, and using two of the Hawkeyes’ opponents that like to bring the pressure — Pittsburgh and Wisconsin — can give us some context.
Against the Panthers, the offensive line did a good job, as C.J. Beathard was only sacked one time for 11 yards. Head coach Paul Chryst’s Badgers, however, managed 4 sacks for 25 yards.
Likely combined punt and kick return yards — 792
Ask anyone with knowledge of Maryland football, and they’ll tell you William Likely is the team’s best player. In the 20 punt returns this season, he’s managed 409 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has also amassed 391 yards on 18 kick returns.
The Hawks have given up only nine punt returns this year (bravo, Chris White and company), and allowed 100 yards and a touchdown. Nineteen opponent kickoff returns have totaled 387 yards.
The Hawkeyes’ coverage teams have been much improved over last year’s (Nebraska seems like a log time ago, doesn’t it?), part of which is because of the Hawkeyes’ playing more starters on special teams and part of which is because Dillon Kidd’s and Marshall Koehn’s strong play.
If Iowa can keep Likely in check, it will neutralize Maryland’s most explosive player.
Third-down conversion rate — Iowa 44.4, Maryland 32.3
Iowa’s offense did a good job in this department early in the season, finishing with a 52 percent clip in September. However, October has been a different story, with the Hawks converting only 36.7 percent of their third-down attempts.
Maryland is a decent team to improve that mark against; the Terrapin defense has allowed opponents to convert at a 37.1 percent clip, good for 10th in the Big Ten. In October, Terrapin opponents have converted 31.7 percent of the time.
For what it’s worth, Iowa’s defense has allowed opponents to convert on third down 35.7 percent of the time, a mark that ranks ninth in the league, sixth in the Big Ten West.
